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Our Expert NBA Over/Under Picks to Help You Win Your Bets This Season
The crisp sound of sneakers on hardwood, the roar of the crowd after a clutch three-pointer, the endless debates about MVP candidates—it’s that magical time of year again. NBA season is back, and with it comes the thrilling, often nerve-wracking world of sports betting. I’ve spent the last few weeks buried in stats, watching preseason games, and analyzing roster moves, all so I can bring you something valuable. Today, I’m sharing our expert NBA over/under picks to help you win your bets this season. But before we dive into point spreads and win totals, let me tell you about a weird little game I’ve been playing lately—because sometimes, the most unexpected experiences offer the best perspective.
It’s called Blippo+, and it’s certainly one of the strangest games you could play this year—or any year, really. Released on Steam, Switch, and Playdate (the small yellow handheld famous for its crank controls), it strains the fundamental definition of a video game. Instead, it’s more of a simulation of TV channel-surfing in the late ’80s or early ’90s, a kind of interaction younger generations actually have no experience with. It’s a game whose target audience would seem to be very few people at all. And yet, because I enjoy exceptionally weird experiences, it delivers. Flipping through those grainy channels, catching random commercials and snippets of shows, feels oddly meditative. There’s no goal, no score, just vibes. And in a way, that’s how I approach betting sometimes—you have to embrace the randomness, the nostalgia, the sheer unpredictability of it all.
Now, let’s get down to business. When it comes to NBA over/under bets, I’ve always believed that the most rewarding picks lie where public perception clashes with underlying data. Take the Golden State Warriors, for example. Their over/under win total is sitting at 48.5 on most major sportsbooks. Everyone’s talking about their aging core and the wear-and-tear of deep playoff runs, but I’m leaning over here. Why? Stephen Curry is still Stephen Curry—a transcendent talent who averaged 29.4 points per game last season with a true shooting percentage north of 65%. Add in the fact that their young guys like Jonathan Kuminga are due for a leap, and I can see them hitting 50 wins if they stay relatively healthy. It’s not a lock, but I’d put a solid unit on the over.
On the flip side, there’s the Philadelphia 76ers. The line is hovering around 47.5 wins, and frankly, I think that’s generous. Joel Embiid is a force—when he’s on the court. But his injury history is a red flag the size of a billboard. He’s missed an average of 21 games per season over the last three years. Combine that with the James Harden saga and the uncertainty surrounding his future, and I smell under. I’d even go as far as saying they might finish with 44 or 45 wins if things go south early. It’s a risky take, but that’s where the value is.
Then there are the dark horses, the teams that casual bettors might overlook. The Oklahoma City Thunder, for instance. Their over/under is set at just 34.5 wins. That feels low to me. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a bona fide star—he dropped 31.4 points per game last season—and with Chet Holmgren returning from injury and a deep young roster, they could surprise a lot of people. I’m taking the over here, and I’d recommend it as a sleeper pick for those looking to beat the house.
Thinking back to Blippo+, with its aimless channel-surfing and lack of clear objectives, I’m reminded that not everything needs to follow a script. The NBA regular season is an 82-game marathon filled with surprises—upsets, breakout performances, and yes, injuries. That’s why our expert NBA over/under picks to help you win your bets this season aren’t just about numbers. They’re about feel, context, and a bit of that weird, gut-instinct magic. I’ve been doing this for over a decade, and the seasons I’ve profited the most were when I blended analytics with intuition.
Let’s talk about one more team: the Denver Nuggets. The defending champs have an over/under of 54.5 wins. Nikola Jokic is a basketball savant, but I’m cautious here. Teams coming off a championship often experience a “hangover,” and the Western Conference is stacked. I’m leaning slightly under, predicting around 52 wins as they manage minutes and prioritize playoff readiness. It’s a contrarian view, but sometimes you have to zag when others zig.
In the end, betting on the NBA is a lot like experiencing Blippo+. You’re navigating a landscape of unpredictability, nostalgia, and occasional brilliance. There are no guarantees—just informed guesses and the thrill of the unknown. So as you place your wagers this season, remember to enjoy the ride. Use these insights, trust your research, and maybe take a chance on a long shot. After all, the most memorable wins often come from the most unexpected places.